The price of steel continues to rise! The latest forecasts of this week have come by analysts.
發(fā)布時(shí)間:[2018-3-4 17:4:25] 瀏覽量:2893次
The holiday market shock upstream, from the policy side, the normal and the enlargement of the peak and limiting the production of "2+26" limited production is the main promoter of the year up, the recent macro data is more stable. From the black commodity fundamentals, steel still maintain a good rising trend, although the total inventory increased, but the policy disturbance and steel sales. The price is up, but the steel production replenishment, high quality, tight balance, steel prices and other factors still drives the price of iron ore and raw materials support. The black market is expected to shake up this week.
1. The situation of various kinds of steel
1. building steel
We review the holiday market situation
Price: after the festival, domestic market construction steel prices part of a small increase. Subregionally, central, southwest, northwest and Shandong, Anhui and other places have 10-90 yuan / ton rose, the rest is to mainly steady. Specifically, for the Spring Festival last week after the first week, the market is still around the holiday atmosphere, opening businesses less, the actual turnover was also limited.
Stock: stock market stock increased significantly after the festival. By the end of 22, the total stock of screw steel and wire rod in the main cities of China was 11 million 355 thousand and 500 tons, and it increased by 3 million 218 thousand and 300 tons in February 8, 2018 (February 8, 2018). In the region, stocks in the southwest, East China and Southern China have increased significantly, and the rest of the region also increased significantly. Inventory in the same period was 11 million 128 thousand and 200 tons in the same period last year, up 2.04% from the same period.
The review after steel case
Output: as of February 22nd, there was a disagreement between the productivity and utilization of the thread steel and wire, the slight decrease of the thread steel and the slight recovery of the wire. The actual output of rebar is 2 million 754 thousand and 300 tons, which is reduced by 137 thousand and 800 tons compared with that before February 8th. The utilization rate of capacity is 60.4%, which is 3% lower than that before the festival. The actual output of wire rod is 1 million 256 thousand and 400 tons, which is 20 thousand and 600 tons higher than that before the festival, and the utilization rate of weekly capacity is 56%, which is 0.9% more than that before the festival.
Stock: after the holiday, the total inventory of building materials in the national construction steel and steel plant increased significantly. The total inventory of rebar stock was 3 million 326 thousand and 800 tons, which increased by 1 million 350 thousand and 300 tons compared with the pre holiday period, an increase of 68.32%. The total wire rod was 1 million 110 thousand and 800 tons, an increase of 576 thousand and 300 tons compared with the pre holiday period, an increase of 107.82%.
As for the feedback situation of the steel plant, although the inventory in the factory has increased substantially, part of the cargo rights have been sold. After the holiday, the resources are gradually transferred to the market, and the selling pressure is still acceptable.
The holiday market demand
Volume: last week the market businesses have opened for business, the most downstream did not return to work, only a few rush deadlines to resume procurement.
In February 24th, the overall market reached 46 thousand and 200 tons, far from the normal level.
According to the author's understanding, the deal is concentrated on the future price trend, based on the middleman enter the market.
The forecast price trend this week: the overall rise
The market merchants opened the market in succession last week, the downstream has not been started, there is no market. The downstream site is resumed in succession this week, and the expected demand can be recovered quickly, and the deal can be expected. The store mood in the pre festival market is positive, and the market mentality is optimistic as a whole, and the sentiment is strong. The increase in stock market stock is basically in line with the expectation, and the stock pressure is still available. The prices of futures and raw materials maintain a strong trend, and the price of the steel plant is stronger. From the market feedback, the market mentality is good, and it is expected that the price of domestic construction steel will rise this week as a whole.
2. medium plate
The price of the fundamental review: prices rose slightly
Last week, the price of domestic medium plate market rose and fell, the largest increase in Guangzhou, 60 yuan per ton; the largest decline in Shenyang, down 30 yuan / ton. As of Friday's close, the average price of 23 city nationwide, 8mm Pu board price is 4449 yuan / ton, compared with the pre holiday rose 13 yuan / ton; 20mm P in the average price of 4159 yuan / ton, compared with the pre holiday rose 12 yuan / ton; 20mm low alloy plate, the average price of 4312 yuan / ton and, compared to the previous day rose 12 yuan / ton.
The steel surface: a review of operating rate and yield up
The total number of 65 production lines in the 37 plate production enterprises monitored in this period is 48, and 17 production lines are discontinued. The overall operating rate is 73.85%, which is 3.07% lower than that before the production. The actual output of the steel plant is 1 million 41 thousand and 500 tons, which is 41 thousand and 500 tons less than that before the holiday, and the decrease is 3.83%. The capacity utilization rate of the steel plant is 64.05% this time, which is 2.55% lower than that before the holiday. The inventory of the steel plant is 957 thousand and 300 tons, which is 223 thousand and 500 tons higher than that before the holiday, an increase of 30.46%.
The inventory review: total inventory increased significantly
The total volume of China's mid board inventory was 1 million 258 thousand and 700 tons last week, up 273 thousand tons compared with the previous period (February 9, 2018). An increase of 1 thousand and 700 tons compared to the same period last year (February 24, 2017).
The steel profits: there rose slightly
In February 24th, the profit of the plate was 936 yuan per ton, and the profit of 917 yuan per ton rose by 19 yuan / ton, and the increase was 2%.
The steel profits: there rose slightly
In February 24th, the profit of the plate was 936 yuan per ton, and the profit of 917 yuan per ton rose by 19 yuan / ton, and the increase was 2%.
The basic situation of the shipbuilding industry
Chinese shipowners are in the leading position in the market for large crude oil carriers.
With the increasing concentration of the large crude oil carrier (VLCC), Chinese ship enterprises have become the leader of the VLCC market.
According to the data, China's largest two shipping companies -- China Energy Transport Co., Ltd. and COSCO maritime energy transport Limited by Share Ltd, have 83 VLCC in operation, and another 19 VLCC handheld orders.
Of the 227 VLCC fleet owned by the five big shipowners, 110 were built for Chinese shipyards and 98 were built for South Korean shipyards.
